Al Qaeda moving? A strange Saudi story

Al Qaeda moving? A strange Saudi story

Last Updated: 3:28 AM, July 15, 2011

Posted: 9:55 PM, July 14, 2011

Al Qaeda moving? A strange Saudi story

Last Updated: 3:28 AM, July 15, 2011

Posted: 9:55 PM, July 14, 2011

Defeated in Iraq and shut out of Af ghanistan, al Qaeda may be trying to transfer its principal bases to its birthplace, Saudi Arabia. At least, that's what the Riyadh government claimed in a series of leaks to the local media this week -- leaks that may well tell us more about the Saudi rulers' plans than al Qaeda's.

The leaks claim that al Qaeda activists entered Saudi Arabia during the last hajj pilgrimage and succeeded in "activating" a number of "sleeper cells," mostly in the port city of Jeddah, the kingdom's second-most-populous city. The "secret organization" they created supposedly draws people from "many walks of life," including academics and clerics.

The alleged conspirators worked out a plan known as "The Mountain Manifesto," under which they would seize power and replace the Saudi monarchy with an al Qaeda-run Islamist regime.

The group allegedly started work in May 2003, shortly after the US-led coalition liberated Iraq. Originally, it dedicated itself to collecting funds and recruiting volunteers for al Qaeda units in Iraq, with the aim of seizing power in Baghdad.

According to the leaks, the authorities have "smashed the conspiracy" by arresting 16 of its top leaders and seizing weapons and documents.

The leaks also claim that the "secret organization" was "coordinating its activities with a foreign security service" -- with quite a few hints suggesting that the alleged culprit is Iran.

The Saudis have attacked Iran for refusing to hand over Saad bin Laden -- a son of the late Osama bin Laden and the terror leader's anointed heir -- who fled to Iran along with scores of other al Qaeda militants in 2001 after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

In 2003 and 2004, Tehran handed 75 al Qaeda refugees to the Saudis as a sign of goodwill. But with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election as Islamic Republic president, relations with Riyadh took a dip and the extradition of al Qaeda militants stopped.

If the leaks are to be believed, the alleged conspirators used tactics developed by a string of jihadist groups since the late 1970s, often with Saudi moral and financial support. These include the creation of bogus "Islamic charities," the collection of funds in or around places of pilgrimage in Mecca and Medina, the peppering of mosque sermons with standard anti-Western and anti-Jewish rhetoric and the stealing of weapons from army barracks and police stations.

Yet the cryptic Saudi leaks raise more questions than they answer. While it's possible that al Qaeda may be trying to regroup in its original home turf, any attempt to seize power in Riyadh would need support from within either the extended royal family or at least some elements of the regular army or National Guard.

But it's unlikely that any power-hungry emir would ally himself with al Qaeda -- an organization dedicated to the destruction of the monarchy. Nor do the leaks mention any link between the alleged conspirators and the military.

So what are we to make of the leaks?

To start with, they may signal an impending crackdown against dissidents of all stripes in the kingdom, in accordance with the standard Arab practice of linking opponents to terrorism and foreign intelligence services.

Some Saudi leaders are clearly rattled by the pan-Arab wave of revolts, echoed in the kingdom with an unprecedented (and until recently unimaginable) series of protests in Jeddah and Riyadh. The subtext of the leaks is that even peaceful protests might contribute to "creating a state of crisis" that al Qaeda could use to seize power.

Then there's the leaks' timing, just before the start of the fasting month of Ramadan. The goal may be to stop the traditional collecting of "donations" for real or bogus "Islamic charities" -- which for decades have been a source of funding for extremist and terrorist groups across the globe.

Finally, the leaks may also contain a cryptic message to Tehran to stop flirting with al Qaeda while trying to fan the flames of revolts in Bahrain and eastern Saudi Arabia, where Shiites account for a majority of the population.

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