Nighthk11 Chat: DV (Private Site) 5/18/11 (Morning)

Nighthk11 Chat: DV (Private Site) 5/18/11 (Morning)



[Nighthk11] Morning DV- Hope all are well- The news of the past 24 hours is IMO not bad – it is something that has been brewing for months within the National Coalition and rule of law concerning Al Maliki’s governance apparently – They have had enough
[Nighthk11] The fact that there has been this split is an indication to me that they are prepared to move forward with an agreement that was initiated to establish the new govt
[Nighthk11] Al Maliki and Allawi will either ceasefire or progress will move around them
[Nighthk11] The fact that they are still there without vacation or recess is an indication that they have taken certain directives from the UNSC/Moon in a very serious light
[Nighthk11] The people of Iraq want action NOW not speeches and hollow words – the demos will not stop until that happens
[Nighthk11] unless they settle this matter quickly – I believe they will be open to direct intervention by the powers
[Nighthk11] not to establish a new govt but to activate the principals of the agreement
[Nighthk11] This is Iraqi politics – they appear to thrive on crisis
[chloe] SOUNDS LIKE MALIKIS LAST DESPERATE ATTEMPT TO REMAIN “THE MAN” AND IS FAILING
[Nighthk11] so we can only wait to see the outcome- but most certainly as stated by the head of state of law months ago – they are not happy and in full agreement with Maliki’s methods
[chloe] I ALSO BELIEVE HE WILL CAVE
[Nighthk11] I would not blame the Iraqi’s entirely on what is happening at this moment – the UN/UNSC-US is also to blame
[Nighthk11] Intervention should have been done when Maliki was allowed to circumvent election results
[Nighthk11] Now they need to correct their mistake
[Nighthk11] If true that the Rule of Law and National Alliance have fragmented and they are talking to the list and others – I think it may indicate that they realize forward progress on pressing issues need to be taken by going around both these men
[Nighthk11] so at this point in time – we can only wait to see what decisions they have come to
[Nighthk11] But for sure events of the past few weeks that have surfaced concerning Maliki have further weakened his position
[Nighthk11] If no compromise is reached – I see little choice but for them to remove one or the other so they can get something done
[chloe] FINANCIAL DECISIONS APPEAR TO HAVE LEFT THESE TWO MEN BEHIND ALSO. THE MOF OPENED THE 2011 BUDGET.
[Nighthk11] Yes Chloe – there is no more time – now we must see if IMF will relax their requirements and allow for Shabibi to release the RV
[coolrizzzy] Nighthk11 – do you know the timeline?
[Nighthk11] Absolute deadline is June 30 when all protection runs out – however mechanisms must be in place well before that date either 30-45 days
[Nighthk11] if 45 days – we are there NOW
[coolrizzzy] Nighthk11, thought I read something today where it said the DFI funds are protected in the UST? If they are protected, what does that do to the 6/30 drop dead date?
[Nighthk11] is what has been reported misinformation? – in this instance I would say NOT
[Nighthk11] DFI is protected until that date – other funds held in various nations are to be transferred to accts set up in US for further protection – but the clock is ticking
[chloe] THEY HAVE TO MEET UNSC STIPS COOLRIZZZY IN ORDER TO BE LET OUT OF CHP 7 NO MATTER IF THE USA PROTECTS THE FUNDS OR NOT…NO WIGGLE ROOM
[coolrizzzy] chloe, sure but it already sounds like the DFI funds are handled
[coolrizzzy] I’m just not seeing the pressure regarding the 6/30 date
[Nighthk11] IMO – the news of this “Split” is huge – it signals a willingness to get this done
[chloe] PROTECTION IS PART BUT CHP 7 STILL REMAINS. IRAQ MUST COMPLY
[coolrizzzy] chloe – question is whether 7 is required for the RV? I don’t remember Shabibi mentioning it at all
[Nighthk11] The DFI is really not the focus here – it is on completion of the full govt
[Nighthk11] The RV is part of chap 7 – should come prior to release not the other way around
[Nighthk11] What they must do now is complete the govt – that will be done with or without Maliki and Allawi
[Nighthk11] the evidence of this last statement is the actions they have taken in the last 24 hours
[chloe] THE NATIONAL ALLIANCE HAS SPLINTERED ALSO NIGHT…THE SUPREME COUNCIL INCLUDING MAHDI ARE IN TALKS WITH IRAQI LIST
[Nighthk11] NA is the block created after all other bloc’s were registered it is really not legal
[chloe] YES THAT’S TRUE
[Nighthk11] They will get this done because there is no other choice at this point except a no confidence vote which would put them back to elections
[Nighthk11] That is NOT acceptable at this time
[Nighthk11] The house of cards has fallen with Maliki and also Allawi to a point-
[Nighthk11] we should see what they have decided to do in a few hours or days – they realize they are out of time
[Nighthk11] The key here is to get the full govt formed and announced so that services for the people become a reality – if not there may be implosion of all that has been done thus far
[coolrizzzy] Nighthk11 , but if they continue to release more of the budget and they begin addressing the services issues, does that buy them even more time to form the GOI?
[Nighthk11] I really don’t see these revelations of the past few hours as a setback- rather them making a decision to go around the problems Maliki-Allawi
[chloe] COOLRIZZZY RELEASING THE BUDGET TRIGGERS MORE THAN THAT.
[Nighthk11] Yes it does- but what about PPP for the people- this is key to calming the masses and allowing them to see that progress is being made
[coolrizzzy] chloe, sure – we assumed that releasing the budget would trigger the RV, but we still don’t have it yet.
[Nighthk11] it can only be done with release on an international level of the dinar
[RDog47] Hard to blame Allawi…yes he’s been hard-nosed about it, but can you blame him? He won the election and then watched as Maliki used the courts to steal it from him and become PM…then they agreed to Erbil which should have given Allawi an office as head of the Strategic Policy Council but Maliki gutted that too and didn’t let it materialize…being a thorn in Maliki’s side was Allawi’s only real option besides moving back to the UK . .
[chloe] WE NEED INTERNATIONAL RELEASE COOLRIZZZY BUT THE BUDGET OPENING PUTS MORE PRESSURE ON SHABS TOO
[chloe] AND THE IMF IN AN INDIRECT WAY JMO
[Nighthk11] The real issue is not blame anyone – but to correct the problem to be in a position to move forward
[coolrizzzy] chloe understood, but I wonder what percentage of the budget must be released before Shabibi says he must do it
[chloe] MALIKI NO LONGER HAS THE VOTES NIGHT, SO HE MUST COMPLY. JMO
[chloe] ME 2 COOLRIZZZZY
[Nighthk11] Chloe with what has happened in the past 24 hours concerning negotiations among the bloc’s I would say he does not
[RDog47] Maliki is very resilient and has lots of stamina, but he’s burning thru allies with his BS
[Nighthk11] Bottom line here folks – is they are not going anywhere without the foundation for the new govt which is the Erbil Agreement – alternative is to start over
[pasta] IMO Maliki is trying to be a dictator and/or if he can’t…he wants to dismantle democracy to say the infidels did not work
[Nighthk11] From what I can see of their actions – that is what they are planning to do with or without Maliki and Allawi –
[RDog47] Nighthk11 what makes you think they’re leaving Allawi behind?
[Nighthk11] Not necessarily behind- Parliament will make the decisions and Allawi will come out ok
[RDog47] okay, agree with that…
[Nighthk11] Once activated – the council will be established with Allawi at its head as agreed
[coolrizzzy] Nighthk11, OK, I understand that scenario, however, do you see M being able to further drag this out in any way?
[Nighthk11] Several months ago – the head of state of law indicated that they were NOT in agreement with how Maliki does business – making decisions without consulting either them or parliament – I think the straw is broken by their actions
[Nighthk11] That would depend on how they decide to further limit his powers
[RDog47] Nighthk11 I remember that – something about Maliki being a mistake…
[Nighthk11] At best – I have the opinion that we may see a close to these new actions prior to the end of the month – most certainly we may see what they have decided to do late this week
[Nighthk11] I am encouraged that for one – they are still there – and two they have apparently made a decision that a majority is in agreement with
[Nighthk11] so the news while frustrating is IMO not really all that bad – as we did want action
[RDog47] Does Maliki have any scorched Earth options that could mess it all up??
[Nighthk11] I do not know that – but from watching what he has done – I would venture to say that his ego has far surpassed his logic in these matters
[Nighthk11] this has been to the detriment of the Iraqi political stage and to the welfare of the people
[RDog47] his ego is what concerns me
[Nighthk11] I believe that their actions is an indication that they want this done as much as we do
[chloe] I DON’T THINK MALIKI HAS THE POWER ANYMORE TO STOP THE RV, HIS ABILITY TO STALL OVER THE MINISTERS AND ERBIL IS ON A SHORT TIME LIMIT.
[Nighthk11] Given their track record – I remain confident that it will be resolved
[Nighthk11] I agree Chloe – that is why I think we will see some resolution later this week
[Nighthk11] This investment has been an interesting venture – after it is over – I am done and out
[Nighthk11] If they were not concerned and did not care – they would be gone by now on vacation
[Nighthk11] so I am very encouraged by all this and see it as positive – I hope some of this helps- please don’t be frustrated – we will have our day at the bank- thanks as always stay positive and blessings to everyone – BBL
[topkick] Thank you for tuning into INSIGHT WITH NIGHT (and now back to your regular scheduled programming).